As for why A-shares go high and low, it may be related to the positive cashing of some hidden funds of A-shares and the seesaw effect of stock bonds.At the same time that A-shares opened higher and went lower, today's bond market is like a rainbow, and the seesaw effect of stock market and bond market reappears. The intraday 30-year treasury bond futures main contract rose by 1.60%, the 10-year main contract rose by 0.73%, and the 5-year main contract rose by 0.44%, hitting a record high. At the same time, the yield of government bonds kept falling, and the yield of 10-year active bonds in China inter-bank bond market fell below 1.85%, continuing to set a new record low.By the close of treasury bond futures, the 30-year main contract rose 1.37%, the 10-year main contract rose 0.67%, the 5-year main contract rose 0.41% and the 2-year main contract rose 0.13%.
At the same time that the three major A-share stock indexes "spread", Hong Kong stocks also opened higher and went lower, and even the Hang Seng Technology Index and Hong Kong Hang Seng Index turned green.Zheshang Securities said in the research report that the policy signal released by this meeting is extraordinary, or it has already indicated that the east wind has blown, and there is a logic of further strengthening in both the equity market and the bond market, and it continues to be optimistic about the interpretation of the stock market and the bond market.While some funds flow into the bond market, some funds choose to take profits.
CITIC Securities clearly pointed out that during the last round of moderate easing, the interest rate cut and RRR cut reached 150BP, and the stocks and debts were both bullish at first, and the stocks continued to rise in the later period, and the bonds fell. In 2011, the inflation reached more than 5%, and the economy was overheated. In the latest research report, CITIC Securities pointed out that debt bulls may continue in stages, and both stocks and debts can be expected. From the historical experience, for the bond market, mentioning "moderate easing" does not mean that the bull market is approaching, and the core of the duration of the debt bull lies in the sustainability of the subsequent wide money operation; For the stock market, compared with the expectation of wide money, the stock market deals with the boosting effect of wide money on the real economy, but this feature has been reversed in recent years. Looking forward to the follow-up, this meeting mentioned "strengthening unconventional countercyclical adjustment", which expressed the incremental policy space relatively positively, while the effectiveness of the previous policy tools was still not fully displayed at the data level, and the probability of the rapid exit of the wide currency was still small. Both stock and debt markets may have a strong foundation.What will happen to the stock market and bond market in the future?Soochow securities said that "moderate easing" may mean that the interest rate cut is more than expected, and the liquidity is relaxed. Soochow securities believes that under the current loose monetary policy, next year will usher in the stage of "two bulls with stocks and debts", and it is expected that the yield of 10-year treasury bonds will drop to 1.5%.
